Track record across recent local-election cycles
Composite 0–100 score: mean absolute seat error per council, council-control hit rate, consistency across cycles.
Read with care. Track record is a guide to how reliable a method has tended to be — not a guarantee for May 2026. Local elections shift in character (new parties, fragmentation, low turnout), so a method that did well last year can do worse this year. No single number tells you a forecast is "right".
| # | Method | Score i | Mean abs. error i | Control hit rate i | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|